Demo To Dollars

Why Most Flippers Crash and Burn

Ed Mathews Season 1 Episode 27

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Most new house flippers fail within 12 months because they approach flipping as a hobby instead of a business. This episode provides the blueprint for survival with 10 critical mistake patterns and their solutions to help you build a sustainable house flipping operation.

• Mistake #1: No consistent deal flow - commit to three acquisition channels with weekly targets
• Mistake #2: Buying bad deals - use the Safe Offer Cap formula (ARV minus fixed costs, rehab costs, and profit)
• Mistake #3: Underestimating rehab costs - create detailed scope with line-item estimates plus 10-15% contingency
• Mistake #4: Contractor chaos - require licenses, insurance, written scopes, milestone payments, and regular site visits
• Mistake #5: Overspending on finishes - match neighborhood comps, not personal taste
• Mistake #6: Ignoring permits and code - map required inspections before demo and budget the time
• Mistake #7: Running out of cash - conservative ARV, full funding before closing, respect your Safe Offer Cap
• Mistake #8: Death by the last 10% - run punch lists and pre-inspection walkthroughs
• Mistake #9: Weak project management - clear work orders with deadlines and milestone-based payments
• Mistake #10: Botching the exit - ensure property is clean, safe, fully functional before listing

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Speaker 1:

Most new flippers fail in the first 12 months because they treat flipping like a hobby. You're going to treat it like a business. That's how you last Ever sat in your car, scrolling through Zillow and thought, man, if I just knew where to start, I could flip one of these. Yeah, I've been there too. Most people who want to flip houses never even start, not because they're lazy, but because they don't have the blueprint. Well, that changes today. If you give me five minutes, I'll give you real-world flipping strategies that actually work. No fluff, no theories, no gatekeeping, just real how-to information for you to apply. Today, most new flippers flame out in a year. It isn't bad luck. It's the same avoidable mistakes on repeat. Today, we're going to talk about 10 mistake patterns and the simple fixes that'll keep you out of the scrap heap. Welcome to Demo, to Dollars, your no-BS flipping playbook. One tip at a time. If you want to flip your first house and actually keep the profit, this is the episode for you. Here's the pattern A newbie buys a razor-thin deal, underestimates the rehab, hires the wrong crew, bleeds cash while the last 10% drags on, then gets crushed at inspection or appraisal.

Speaker 1:

That's not fate, that's bad planning and it's fixable. So let's fix it. Mistake number one no consistent deal flow. You can't win if you never see good inventory. Most beginners rely on one channel. Then wait. Waiting is not a pipeline. Commit to three channels you can execute every week Direct mail, real estate agent wholesaler relationships and one outbound channel like texts or door knocking. Track touches, appointments, offers and contracts. Offers shipped, not excuses. So the fix set weekly targets, review the numbers every Friday, adjust what's weak.

Speaker 1:

Mistake two buying a bad deal. Most mistakes start at acquisition. Arv is inflated, fixed costs are ignored, rehab is just a guess. Use the demo to dollar safe offer cap to keep yourself out of trouble. What's that here? It is Safe offer cap equals after rehab value minus your fixed costs, minus your rehab costs, minus your profits. It's a little different than MAO maximum allowable offer, but it's a lot safer, especially for beginners. So for newbies, set fixed costs at about 10 to 12% of ARV, usually right in that range, and then use a profit floor of greater than 15% or $25,000, whichever is more. So here's the fix Run the SOC on every property. If the seller's price is above your cap, adjust the plan or walk away.

Speaker 1:

Mistake three underestimating rehab. This one's a big one Winging. It isn't a budget. You need a detailed scope and a line item. Estimate Price, every task, every detail, and then add a contingency of no less than 10%. If you're new at this, I recommend 15%. The fix. Use breakdown estimation room by room, add at least 10% and preferably 15% contingency. Do not make an offer until you've figured out scope.

Speaker 1:

Mistake four contractor chaos. We just talked about this in the last episode. But wrong hires, fuzzy expectations, no paperwork and no site presence. That's how projects drift and budgets explode. Require licenses and insurance, non-negotiable Use, written scopes of work and work orders. Pay by the milestone, not by the vibes. This is not the time to be a good guy. Collect a lien waiver with every payment. The fix. A pre-construction meeting on day one, expectations in writing, site visits at least weekly, and it's always a good idea to surprise them every once in a while.

Speaker 1:

Mistake five this is the one I made with my first New flippers. Love fancy. Buyers pay for right. Your finishes must match the comp set, not your Pinterest board. The fix. Standardize on finishes by price point and neighborhood. Save the artisanal tile for your forever home.

Speaker 1:

Mistake six ignoring permits and code. Skipping permits triggers delays, rework and red flags for buyers and appraisers. The fix map required inspections before the demo Sequence trades around them. Budget the time. Mistake seven running out of cash. It's a classic one Holding costs, points, interest, they all chew through thin margins. One surprise and you are toast.

Speaker 1:

The fix. Underwrite with conservative ARV Fund the full budget plus contingency before you close, plus a little extra. The SOC protects your runway, respect it. Mistake eight death by the last 10%. Almost done will last forever. Done means there is nothing left to do. The final 10% is where schedules slip. The fix Run a punch list.

Speaker 1:

Pass then a final walkthrough 24 hours before the buyer's inspection. Fix issues before someone else writes them up. Mistake nine weak project management. If everyone owns it, nobody owns it. The fix Every contractor gets a work order with scope, start date, milestones and deadline. Weekly updates cover completed tasks. There is nothing left to do. Roadblocks, next steps and immediate needs and you pay on those milestones and deliverables.

Speaker 1:

Mistake 10, botching the exit. I've seen this so many times. You reach the finish line, then lost the race at inspection or appraisal. Fix clean, safe, fully functioning cells. Run your final checklist stage the property and price two of the comps you used to underwrite the deal, your 12-month survival plan. Here's the plan that keeps you alive. Long enough to get good at this Pipeline Three channels, weekly targets.

Speaker 1:

To get good at this Pipeline three channels, weekly targets. Visible scorecard underwriting. Use the demo to dollar safe offer cap with a profit floor of at least 10, preferably 15% of ARV or $25,000, whichever is more. Scope and budget line item SOW breakdown estimations. Real contingencies no less than 10%. If this is your first, make it 15.

Speaker 1:

Contractors you've got to get their licenses and insurance. You need to verify that. Written work orders, milestone draws, lien waivers with every payment and job site presence. Match the level of your finish, match the comp set, not your taste. You will never live there. Permits and inspections Know the path. Work the plan Simple. Close out, run your punch list, pre-inspection walkthrough and then final clean and make it a deep clean. Look, most new flippers fail in the first 12 months because they treat flipping like a hobby. You're going to treat it like a business. That's how you last. That's how you scale. Thank you for making us a part of your day. If this helped, follow the show, share it with a friend and go make an offer today. This is Demo to Dollars. See you next time. Thanks for listening to Demo to Dollars. If today's episode helped you move one step closer to your first or next deal, do me a favor Follow us wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss a show. I'm grateful to be part of your journey. Now get out there and get cracking Bye for now,

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Ed Mathews - Clark St Capital LLC